Chris Russell, Dan Bryan, thanks for staying with me here.

Let's talk about the primary, which, you know, historically has low voter turnout, not a ton of tight races, but in LD three, as we heard Brenda Flanagan mention, I mean, Ed Durr is really running on his brand.

What do you think the biggest factor is going to be in that race?

And I'm wondering if it's Donald Trump.

Listen, Ed made a lot of headlines both in state and nationally when he won in 2021.

I think that he had a lot of excitement behind him that said his views are certainly outside the mainstream.

I don't think anyone debates I don't even think at Ed Durr would debate that.

So I think what the Republican Party now needs to see is can they nominate someone that can compete in a general election that has it is a bit more mainstream then Ed the trucker.

And we'll see.

But it's going to be important test for the Republican Party.

Someone, Chris, who can take on John Burzichelli.

I mean, stalwart of the legislature in the general election.

No doubt about it.

And full disclosure, I'm working on the opposite side of that during that race.

And for the very reason that Dan just said, frankly, I think Republicans need to put forward appealable candidates to a larger, broader audience.

I don't think Ed is not that he can win the general election.

It's a Republican district.

I think he's the only Republican who could lose it in a general election.

And I think if Beth Sawyer wins, I doubt it's even competitive.

You think he captured some lightning in a bottle there when he won?

He was swept in on some coattails encapsulating a bottle.

But now two years, Democrats have to study this guy.

Look at all his foibles.

Sure, it's a problem.

Yeah.

Now he's got a track to run on.

Dan, what other races are you watching?

So, you know on the Democratic side, there aren't a lot of primaries I think a big piece of that is Democrats have majorities in the House and the Senate.

We're putting forward very good candidates that are going to run incredibly strong races.

So we're really focused on the general for the most part.

There are a few competitive primaries, or at least I should say primaries with multiple candidates in there.

I think it's going to be a little bit sleepier on the Democratic side than the Republican side.

And listen, on the Republican side, as we said before, they've got to prove that they can put forward candidates that appeal to the mainstream.

So far, they haven't quite done that.

And those candidates have to have the resources to run competitive elections in November.

Chris, where are you focusing your attention today?

And does the fact that what Dan brought up about there being more contested races within the GOP indicate a more of a fracture within the party?

Well, listen, I think there are some there are some good opportunities in the fall that don't have primaries today.

District 11 Stephen Dnistrain against Vin Gopal is a race to watch I think three, four and Gloucester County are all races where the Republican Party is at odds about what the future should look like and who they should be.

But we we have a map that we can compete in.

We have to put candidates who can compete.

Governor Murphy, six years in.

People get tired.

They're looking for alternative Joe Biden.

Even Democrats are looking to possibly move past Joe Biden.

So there's an opportunity in the political environment for Republicans, but only if we can a second attract not just Republicans, but independents.

Even some Democrats are frustrated with where the state is and where the country is.

What's the effect going to be of the what we anticipate will be low voter turnout based on early voting numbers and vote by mail ballots that are already in some 220,000?

I mean, unfortunately, I think like you said earlier in the open, I mean, these are low turnout affairs.

They're low attention affairs.

So party people come out, party regulars vote.

I think the interesting thing will be how does the early vote and vote by mail kind of expansion affect turnout?

I tend to think it's going to be a little bit higher than you would have seen in the 2019 type of race, which is the comparison.

So I think to look at that, you could see lower vote, voter turnout, the polls than you saw back then.

But a lot more people voting by mail in some of these districts, especially ones that are competitive, better for incumbents, better perhaps for Democrats.

So up till now, the Democratic Party has been the party that's embraced vote by mail.

And it's you know, in 20, 21 it's the type of vote that delivered the governor to reelection.

We saw it last year as well.

Democrats did very well and vote by mail.

So we see already sitting here today.

33% of vote by mail.

Voters have already have their votes in by Election Day in a very sleepy primary statewide.

That's a very big number.

So I think Republicans have realized that and they're trying to pivot now.

They're trying to embrace vote by mail a bit more.

So we're going to see it's going to be the big test of the in the under the new vote by mail law.

This is the first off year primary, I'm sorry, off year midterm election.

So we'll see if that juices up those numbers and vote by mail.

All right.

Democratic strategist Dan Bryan, Republican strategist Chris Russell, thank you both for being with me.

Thank you.